Introduction
For decades, a covert conflict has been unfolding between Israel and Iran across the Middle East. This shadow war involves various forms of attacks, including land-based, sea-based, aerial, and even in cyberspace. The recent escalation of strikes, particularly a significant aerial assault by Iran against Israel over the past weekend, has brought this conflict to the forefront, sparking concerns about the possibility of a wider war.
Recent Escalations
The most recent round of hostilities saw a retaliatory Israeli strike on an Iranian air base. Despite this response, the strike seemed to be relatively contained in scope, leading analysts to believe it was an attempt to de-escalate the situation and move the conflict back into the shadows.
Historical Overview
- August 2019: An Israeli airstrike in Syria resulted in the deaths of two Iranian-trained militants. Additionally, a drone incident near a Hezbollah office in Lebanon and an airstrike in Qaim, Iraq, targeting an Iran-backed Iraqi militia commander were reported. These actions were perceived as efforts to halt Iran’s attempts to establish an overland arms-supply route to Lebanon through Iraq and northern Syria.
- January 2020: Following the assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani in a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad, Israel expressed approval of the action. In retaliation, Iran launched a missile attack on two bases in Iraq housing American troops, resulting in injuries to approximately 100 U.S. military personnel.
- 2021-22: In July 2021, an Israeli-owned oil tanker came under attack off the coast of Oman, leading to the deaths of two crew members. Israeli officials suspected that Iranian drones were responsible for the assault.
